San Clemente Housing Market Update: October 2026
Prices are still climbing in San Clemente and Dana Point, homes are selling faster, and fewer buyers are signing contracts across Orange County. Here's what the numbers say, and what I'd do with them if I owned a home here.
· 5 min read · 980-416-6412
The short version
- San Clemente: median sale price about $1.8M, up 4.0% year over year, and homes are selling in a median of 34 days, 37 days faster than last year (Redfin).
- Dana Point: median sale price $2,099,000, up 16.6% year over year (Redfin, September 2026).
- Orange County: median price $1.48M, up 5.6%, but pending sales are down about 21% from a year ago.
- Rates: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% this week, down slightly from 7.40% (Freddie Mac).
Hi neighbors, Roy here. Welcome to my first weekly Market Update. Every Monday I'm going to break down what's actually happening with home prices in San Clemente, Dana Point, Capistrano Beach and the rest of South Orange County, with the sources linked at the bottom so you can check my math. I'm a numbers guy, and I think you deserve the real picture, not a sales pitch.
This week's headline: prices are holding up, good homes are selling faster, but buyers are getting pickier. Let's dig in.
San Clemente: prices up, inventory down
According to Redfin, the median sale price in San Clemente was about $1.8 million for the three months ending September 2026, up 4.0% from a year earlier. 184 homes sold in that stretch, up from 163 a year ago. The part that jumped out at me is speed: the median home went under contract in 34 days, which is 37 days faster than last year, and sold for about 98.6% of its list price.
If you only look at single-family homes, the numbers are even stronger. California Regional MLS data shows a September 2026 single-family median of about $2.225 million, up from about $2.085 million a year earlier. There were only 105 active single-family listings in town, compared with 130 a year ago, which works out to about 2.9 months of supply. Anything under roughly four months generally favors sellers.
Here's the honest other side. Roughly 43% of active San Clemente listings have taken a price cut, according to Pacific Sotheby's October report. To me that tells a clear story: buyers are still paying top dollar, but only for homes that are priced right and show well. Overpriced homes are sitting, and then chasing the market down.
Dana Point and Capistrano Beach
Dana Point had a big month on paper. Redfin shows a median sale price of $2,099,000 in September 2026, up 16.6% year over year, with a median of 47 days on market (17 days faster than last year) and homes selling for about 98.3% of list.
A word of caution, because I'd rather be straight with you: Dana Point, and Capistrano Beach within it, has a fairly small number of sales each month. A couple of bluff-top or Strand closings can pull the median way up. I'd treat that 16.6% as "prices are firm and buyers are active," not "your home is worth 16.6% more than last fall." If you want to know what your specific home would sell for, that comes from the comps on your street, and I'm happy to pull them for you.
Orange County: prices up, contracts down
Zooming out, the California Association of Realtors reported an Orange County median price of $1,480,000 in September, up 5.6% from $1,401,250 a year earlier. Sales were down 2.0%.
The number I'm watching most closely is demand. The weekly Orange County Housing Report counted 1,573 homes in escrow as of October 19, compared with 1,989 in the same week last year. That's about 21% fewer buyers signing contracts, and the lowest October reading in at least five years. Inventory sits around 5,034 active listings countywide.
| Area | Median price | Year over year | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Clemente (all homes) | $1.8M | +4.0% | 34 |
| San Clemente (single-family) | $2.225M | +6.7% | n/a |
| Dana Point | $2.099M | +16.6% | 47 |
| Orange County | $1.48M | +5.6% | n/a |
Sources: Redfin (San Clemente, three months ending September 2026; Dana Point, September 2026), California Regional MLS via InfoSparks, C.A.R., and the Orange County Housing Report. All figures are as published; see the full source list below.
Rates: what 7.3% really costs you
Freddie Mac's latest survey (October 22) has the average 30-year fixed at 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before. A year ago it was 6.19%. The 15-year fixed is at 6.68%.
Let me put that in real dollars, because this is what buyers are feeling. On a $1.8 million San Clemente home with 20% down, the principal and interest payment on a $1.44 million loan is about $9,890 a month at 7.32%, versus about $8,810 at last year's 6.19%. That's roughly $1,080 more every month, or nearly $13,000 a year, for the same house. (My own math, principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance.)
That's exactly why pricing matters so much right now. Buyers are still out there, but they're doing this math too, and they won't stretch for a home that feels overpriced.
Local news: the Norte Fire
On Friday, October 16, the Norte Fire broke out near the San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano border and grew to about 570 acres. As of October 20, ABC7 reported it was 75% contained, all evacuation orders had been lifted, and seven homes in San Juan Capistrano were damaged or destroyed. Two firefighters were hurt and are recovering at home.
A lawsuit filed October 19 alleges SDG&E equipment caused the fire. SDG&E says the cause is still under investigation and that there's currently no basis to link its equipment to the ignition. I'll keep you posted as the facts come out.
If your family was affected, my heart goes out to you. If you have questions about your home, your insurance claim timeline, or what this means if you were planning to sell, call me. I'll help however I can, even if it has nothing to do with a listing.
My take for South OC homeowners
- If you're thinking about selling: the market is rewarding homes that are priced right on day one. With about 43% of San Clemente listings taking price cuts, the worst move is starting high and "seeing what happens."
- If you're thinking about leasing: with rates above 7%, many would-be buyers are staying renters longer. If you have a low-rate mortgage, leasing your home could beat selling. I'll run both scenarios side by side for you.
- If you're an investor: fewer buyers in escrow can mean more room to negotiate on the right property. Let's talk about what you're looking for.
- If your home didn't sell: you're not alone, and it's usually fixable. Here's how I relist homes.
That's it for this week. Questions about any of these numbers, or what they mean for your street? Call or text me at 980-416-6412. I answer my own phone.
Talk soon,
Roy
Questions I hear this week
Is now a good time to sell a home in San Clemente?
For a well-priced home, yes. Redfin shows San Clemente homes selling in a median of 34 days in the three months ending September 2026, 37 days faster than a year earlier, at about 98.6% of list price. Single-family inventory is also lower than last year. The catch is pricing: around 43% of active listings have had a price cut, so the homes that sell are the ones priced right from day one.
What is the median home price in San Clemente right now?
It depends on what you count. Redfin puts the median sale price for all home types at about $1.8 million (three months ending September 2026, up 4.0% year over year). For single-family homes alone, California Regional MLS data shows a September 2026 median of about $2.225 million, up from about $2.085 million a year earlier.
Are home prices going up in Dana Point?
Redfin's September 2026 data shows a Dana Point median sale price of $2,099,000, up 16.6% from a year earlier, with a median of 47 days on market. Dana Point has a small number of sales each month, so one or two oceanfront closings can swing the median. I'd watch the trend over a few months before reading too much into one jump.
Should I sell or lease out my South OC home with rates above 7%?
It comes down to your numbers. If you have a low-rate mortgage and the rent covers your costs, leasing can make sense, especially while high rates keep more people renting. If you need the equity or don't want to be a landlord, today's prices are still near record highs. I'm happy to run both scenarios for your specific home, at no cost.
Sources
- Redfin, San Clemente housing market (data through September 2026)
- Redfin, Dana Point housing market (data through September 2026)
- San Clemente single-family data from California Regional MLS via InfoSparks/ShowingTime Plus and Pacific Sotheby's October 2026 report, as compiled by Adam Boehrer
- California Association of Realtors, September 2026 home sales and price report (Oct. 19, 2026)
- Orange County Housing Report, Orange County Real Estate, Inc. (Oct. 19, 2026)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 22, 2026)
- ABC7 Los Angeles, Norte Fire coverage (Oct. 20, 2026)
Written by Roy Quick
I'm a Realtor® with LUXRE Realty, based in San Clemente. I help South Orange County homeowners sell or lease their homes, and I love running the numbers with investors. Every week I break down what's actually happening in our local market, with sources, so you can make your next move with confidence.